📉 The Shrinking Global Coal Market (Part 1: Coal Plants)

Hi and welcome to your climate data briefing.

I don't usually write to you on a Monday morning, but wrangling this edition has been like stuffing octopi into a box. Hopefully you’ll find it useful!

Amid all the noise of election promises and Trump's tariffs, an important macro trend quietly took shape last week.

The Global Energy Monitor (GEM) updated its coal plant tracker.

The headline: New coal capacity has fallen to its lowest level in two decades.

It’s a datapoint that's especially relevant for Australia. Let’s take a look.

Why Coal Matters

Coal is the most polluting fossil fuel.

• It emits around 970 tonnes of greenhouse gases for every gigawatt-hour (GWh) of electricity produced (enough to power 150 homes for a year).
• That's 166 times more than nuclear and 88 times more than wind.

Here's a breakdown of the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂-e) emissions by fuel source:

Coal Loses Ground

That marks the slowest annual growth in 20 years.

The amount of new capacity still exceeded retirements, meaning the world saw a net increase in coal power.

But it's a ‘strong signal for the continued decline of coal’, according to GEM.

Of the countries that are building new power plants, the top 8 are:

• China
• Indonesia
• India
• Japan
• Bangladesh
• Vietnam
• Pakistan
• South Korea

Here’s a look at the last three years of new coal power in those countries, leaving China off for the moment.

Let’s add China to that chart. As usual, the country’s scale dwarfs the others.

Now let’s drop in the renewable capacity that China has added over the past three years for comparison. (The data source for renewables is IRENA).

Talk about scale dwarfing the others. Here’s how new coal compares to new renewables capacity worldwide.

Where Australia Fits In

Australia has not built any new coal-fired power stations in more than a decade.

Here’s a look at the coal-fired power plants decommissioned since 2000 (in grey).

And here are the slated retirements through to 2051 (in purple).

Among the closures marked for 2028 is Queensland’s Callide B power station. But just last week, the state's LNP government announced the station will stay open for another three years.

While domestic debate focuses on whether ageing coal plants might squeeze out a few more years of operation, the real shift is happening elsewhere as renewables surge ahead.

Coal and renewables aren’t directly comparable—intermittent generation means renewables require more capacity—but the broader trend is unmistakable: the coal market is losing steam.

Next Time: Coal Mines

Coal plants are only half the story. Last week, US President Trump signed a flurry of executive orders aimed at expanding coal mining and combustion across the United States, in an effort to revive the struggling industry. Australia even got a mention in his ‘beautiful clean coal’ energy overhaul.

But with the global coal market shrinking, what’s happening with Australian exports? We may not be building new power stations, but dozens of new mines are still on the table. We’ll dig into that another time.

The Global Energy Monitor is expected to release an update to its Coal Mine Tracker later this month. (The Australia Institute also maintains a tracker here). We’ll report on the update when it lands. Stay tuned.

What We’re Reading 

Climate data hoarders 

Spanish researcher laments the barriers to accessing climate data from ‘gate-keeping national agencies, which often cite security, privacy or commercial concerns’. ‘The stakes of open data sharing are nothing less than the future of our planet.’ Accompanies a scientific paper modelling a sharp drop in rainfall across the Mediterranean, and offers a glimpse into the research hurdles behind it. To get precipitation trend data, the team negotiated with reluctant national agencies. In the end, they handed over code for the agencies to run locally—allowing the modelling to go ahead while the raw data remained sealed. (Nature)

Morality doesn’t move markets 

Trump’s oil and gas policies are ‘causing a shakeup’ of the $1.4 trillion global energy-finance sector, with the market’s once-unified stance on climate action ‘collapsing.’ ‘Wall Street is basically saying to the sustainability community: ‘You promised us higher returns as well as positive impacts. You’ve had five years, it hasn’t worked, let’s move on.’ Behind closed doors, bankers and asset managers are weighing the removal of long-standing restrictions on some of the most controversial fossil fuel projects. ‘Morality doesn’t move markets. Only price does.’ (Bloomberg)

What they offer

Election special: Useful tracker listing major policy promises in the election campaign. There are 36 entries under Environment and Energy, showing key differences between Labor and the Coalition. Labor promises: $4000 subsidies for home batteries; vehicle efficiency standards from July 1 with penalties for non-compliant automakers; 2030 emissions reduction target maintained. Coalition promises: seven nuclear power plants purportedly costing $331 billion; more gas drilling permits and a reservation policy to compel producers to supply the domestic market; vehicle efficiency standards without penalties; 2030 emissions reduction target scrapped. (The Conversation)

Headlines to Watch

Federal Election:

• Will we always have Paris? Coalition forced to clarify climate commitment (The Sydney Morning Herald, 10 Apr)
• Dutton’s gas blast to cut energy bills for households (The Australian, 8 Apr)
• Labor offers a 30 per cent battery discount and this is how it could work for your household (ABC News, 6 Apr)

Australia:

• Nearly 2m hectares of koala habitat bulldozed since 2011 (The Guardian, 12 Apr)
• World’s most advanced wind and solar grid can now export and import more power (Renew Economy, 11 Apr)
• Queensland tears up transition targets and will keep coal for longer (Australian Financial Review, 8 Apr)

Global:

• Shipping companies to pay for carbon dioxide produced by vessels (The Guardian, 12 Apr)
• Donald Trump’s tariff blitz sparks turmoil for green energy sector (Financial Times, 7 Apr)
• Tesla’s global vehicle deliveries sank 13% in first quarter (The Wall Street Journal, 2 Apr)

Data Updates

Transport: Are Australians buying EVs?

New vehicle sales last month (March 2025) versus same month last year:

• EV: 8,385 (-19.9%)
• PHEV: 6,932 (+390.9%)
• Hybrid: 16,830 (+20.8%)
• Petrol: 43,785 (-8.3%)
• Diesel: 31,548 (-0.6%)
• Total: 107,480 (+2.1%)

Energy: Where do we get our electricity?

National Electricity Market (NEM) last week (Week 15 2025) versus same week last year:

• Fossil Fuels: 59.9% (-2.6%)
• Renewables: 39.5% (+5.4%)

Breakdown:

• Coal (Black): 38.6% (-3.1%)
• Coal (Brown): 16.1% (-0.4%)
• Solar (Rooftop): 13.5% (+2.2%)
• Wind: 11.7% (+3.4%)
• Solar (Utility): 9.0% (+1.2%)
• Hydro: 6.8% (+0.3%)
• Gas: 5.4% (+1.1%)
• Bioenergy: 0.0% (-0.2%)

Final Thought

The problem with a race to the bottom is that you might win.
— Seth Godin

That's your climate data briefing. See you again very soon.

💛 Juliette and the OnlyFacts team